我国普通高校校舍建设规模的实证研究

An Empirical Analysis on the Construction of the Buildings of China's National Colleges and Universities

基于结构向量修正误差模型(SVECM)的理论基础,首次建立了我国普通高校校舍建设面积与在校师生人数的结构协整关系模型,找到了我国普通高校校舍建设面积与在校师生人数的协整关系。研究结果表明,1997～2009年我国普通高校在校生人数扩招速度明显高于校舍建设速度和教职工人数增长速度,在校生人数增长速度是校舍建设速度的2倍,是教职工人数增长速度的5倍。基于此结果,引入高校贷款因素,建立了高校校舍面积增速评价模型,得到了不同类型的高校的最佳校舍建设面积增速,为我国高校校舍建设提供了理论依据。

On the basis of the construction of the structural vector error correction model （SVECM）, we perform an empirical analysis of the structure cointegration of time series between the growth ratio of the building construction of China＇s national universities and colleges, the growth ratio of the staff and the students in them. We obtain the structure cointegration of the above three time series. We find that the speed of the student growth is twice as fast as that of the building construction, and five times as fast as that of the staff from 1997 to 2009. To find the optimal growth construction speed of buildings of various national universities and colleges, we construct another mathematics model by introducing the loan actor into it. Through the model, we make some suggestions from a theoretic aspect on the building construction of China^s national universities and colleges.