面向作战战略筹划的冲突场景空间构建分析方法研究

Analysis and Establishment Methods of Conflict Scenario Space in Strategy Decision-making

针对未来作战战略筹划中）中突场景空间的构建与分析问题，分析了目前研究中存在的主要问题，依照）中突场景空间构建的基本逻辑设计了B-MA（Bayesian and morphological analysis）方法流程，给出了基于兼容度的因素过滤和基于目标规划法的场景可能性过滤方法，用于辅助军事人员分析构成冲突场景空间中各要素的层次关系、因果联系，以及如何从场景空间中筛选出合理的、有代表性的场景等问题。

Aiming at the analysis and establishment of conflict scenario space in strategic decision, the paper analyzes the limitation of the present research, and defines the new method which combines Bayesian and morphological analysis according to the basic logic of establishing scenario space, and designs a scenarios filter methods based on compatibility values and modified goal programming. The new method can assist military specialist by analyzing the hiberarchy and cayse-and-effect relationships of the factors composing of scenario space, and how to select the reasonable and representative scenarios from scenario space.