福州市房地产景气循环周期研究——基于扩散指数模型分析

Research of business cycle of Fuzhou's real estate based on the diffusion index

根据景气循环原理,运用扩散指标数模型,分析了福州市房地产市场景气循环周期。文章建立了福州市房地产景气状况分析体系,分析了福州市房地产运行轨迹,评价了福州市房地产目前的景气空间及短期内发展趋势。研究结果表明:2001—2011年间,福州市房地产经历了"不景气—景气—不景气"状态变化,预测在1～2年内仍将持续当前的不景气状态。

Based on business cycle theory, the business cycle of Fuzhou＇s real estate market was an- alysed by using the diffusion index model. An analysis system of Fuzhou＇s real estate situation was established. The running track of Fuzhou＇s real estate was analysed. The boom space and short-term development trends of Fuzhou＇s real estate were evaluated. It is indicated that Fuzhou＇s real estate has experienced three stages from 2001 to 2011 ： recession - prosperity - recession. It is predicted that the current recession will continue in the future 1 -2 years.