基于Fuzzy-AHP法的公路工程总承包项目实施风险分析

Risk analysis of general contracting highway engineering project

考虑公路工程总承包项目风险影响因素具有层次性与模糊性,利用模糊层次分析法建立风险评价模型。文章采用项目风险量来表示风险因素对工程项目目标实现的影响程度,给出风险量的表达式,并详细论述了运用模糊层次分析法评价项目整体风险水平的基本步骤。最后,结合某高速公路总承包项目,计算出该项目的风险量,判定该项目风险水平,列出各风险因素的总排序,以便类似项目管理人员制定针对性的应对措施。

To determine the factors and the extent of risks involved in general contracting highway engineering projects, a risk evaluation model based on fuzzy analytical was established. Project risk weight was adopted to express the influence hierarchy process （AHP） degree of the risk factors in the implementation of engineering projects, A series of quantity expressions of project risk were pres- ented. The application of fuzzy mathematics and analytic hierarchy process to evaluating the overall project risk level was discussed. The calculation of the overall project risk level was conducted in re- lation with a general contracting highway project. The ranking of the risk factors was obtained to pro- vide useful data for dealing with risks in practical projects.