美以武力解决伊核问题的合法性与可行性

Legitimacy and Feasibility of US and Israeli Military Action against Iranian Nuclear Issue

发展核武器虽符合伊朗致力于成为地区大国的战略逻辑,但受到国际国内压力,伊朗未必能够突破红线,军事打击伊朗难以具备足够的合情理性和合法性。伊朗核设施具有数量多、防攻击能力强等特点,其核能力趋于成熟,其民族国家建构亦比较成功,无论是定点清除,还是全面战争,均难以达到彻底解决伊核问题的目标。军事打击还可能导致石油市场崩溃和全球经济危机,并将遭到中俄等国家的强烈反对,美以不得不有所顾忌。尽管战争的可能性始终不能排除,但遏制伊朗以及提供延伸威慑已逐渐成为美国对伊政策的重点,美伊关系有可能陷入长期低烈度但可控的冲突。

Judging by its ambition to become a regional power, Iran might reasonably choose to develop nuclear weapons. But it does not mean that Iran will naturally break through the red lines due to both internal and external constraints. Therefore, a military solution will neither be legitimate nor legal. Iran＇s nuclear facilities are numeral and well-defended, and its nuclear capabilities are mature. Neither targeted attacks nor an overall war can solve the problem thoroughly. Military solutions will probably worsen global economy. And military solutions will also be opposed by China and Russia, which both strongly advocate for peaceful resolution of the problem. Though the possibility of a war cannot be excluded, yet containment on Iran and extension of deterrence for US allies will gradually become the pragmatic measures of the US to deal with Iran nuclear issue. The US-Iran relations will likely enter into a stage of low-intensive but manageable conflicts.