某些地震学预报方法的分类及初步优选

CLASSIFICATION OF SOME SEISMOLOGICAL PREDICTION METHODS AND THE PRELIMINARY OPTIMUM SEEKING FOR THEM

根据地震学预报方法及参数的物理意义、统计特征及相互关系 ,按其描述的地震现象或介质特性 ,将这些方法和参数分为空间结构、时间结构、震级结构、外因调制、震源及介质、综合性参数及地震序列参数 7大类。部分参数间具有相关性 ,不必重复使用。通过对以地震目录为基础资料的某些地震学参数算法分析及地震学意义的讨论 ,初步优选了相关参数并认为 :研究地震空间结构 ,可使用 DS、Qn 或 C值之一 ;研究地震时间结构 ,使用 N、D或 βn 之一及 Dt或 Qt之一 ;研究地震震级 (强度 )结构 ,使用 E1/ 2 或 b值 ,AC或 A(b)可配合使用 ,η及 M方法可考虑舍弃 ;研究外因调制 ,可使用Rm 或 Y值 ;YH及 GL值是较合理的兼顾时、空、强因子的综合性参数。

Based on the physical meaning,statistic characteristics and correlation of some seismological prediction methods and parameters,these methods and parameters are arranged into 7 big classes according to the earthquake phenomenon or medium features they describe.These 7 classes are spatial structure parameters,temporal structure parameters,magnitude structure parameters,external factor modulation parameters,focus and medium parameters,comprehensive parameters and earthquake series parameters.Because there exists correlatability among some parameters,it's unnecessary to use repeatedly.Taking earthquake catalogues as basic data,the algorisms of some seismological parameters and their seismological meanings are discussed,and a preliminary result of optimum seeking for correlative parameters has been given.It is thought that when studying seismic spatial structure,it's enough to use one of values of D\-S,Q\-n and C;when studying seismic temporal structure,one of N,D and β\-n or one of D\-t and Q\+t is enough;when studying magnitude (intensity) structure,E 12 and b can be used,AC or A(b) can play a supporting role,and η and M can be given up;when studying external factor modulation, R\-m or Y can be given consideration on;YH and GL are more reasonable comprehensive parameters concurrently with time,space and intensity factors.