对我国未来几年地震大形势的预测研究

PREDICTION AND STUDY OF GENERAL EARTH-QUAKE TREND IN THE NEXT SEVERAL YEARS IN OUR COUNTRY

根据地震期幕活动的特点 ,及对东北深震与华北、黄海和中国大陆地震活动关系的研究得出 :中国大陆地震活动第 5轮回的强震活跃幕还未结束 ,还将延续 3～ 5年的时间 ;今后几年大陆发生 7级以上地震的危险性仍然存在 ,华北、黄海的 6级地震活动也有可能增强。

According to the study on the characteristics of periods and episodes of seismicity in China and the relation between deep earthquakes in Northeast China and the seismic activities in North China,Yellow Sea and China mainland,following result has been obtained:the active episode in the fifth round of strong earthquake activity will not finish in China mainland untill 3~5 years later;and the risk of strong earthquakes(M>7)will still exist in the next several years;after that it is possible that seismic activity (M≥6)will increase in North China and Yellow Sea.