区域粮食总产量预测的灰色动态模型群

GREY DYNAMIC MODEL GROUPS FOR THE FORECAST OF REGIONAL TOTAL GRAIN YIELDS

应用灰色系统理论 ,建立了福建省粮食总产量的动态模式 ,分析了粮食总产量的历史变动状况 ,并对1998～ 2 0 0 5年的粮食总产量进行预测。模型采用两种特殊措施 ,极大地提高了预测精度。

Regional grain producing system is a complicated grey control system with multi-factors. The grain yield forecast is one of the important basic projects in making regional development program.By using the grey system theory, a dynamic differential model of the total grain yields in Fujian Province is set up according to the historical data. The forecasting precision is greatly raised thanks to the following two special measures used in the model.1) The smoothness of the original discrete data series ｛x (0) (k)｝ can be improved through conducting transformation by means of extraction of n square root.2) Instead of using a single model, a group of models with the function of metabolism is set up for the forecast. The historical total grain yield fluctuation in Fujian Province are analysed and the grain yields in the years from 1998 to 2005 are forecasted. The historical total grain yield series from 1950 to 1997 can be divided roughly into 2 increasing sections and 2 reducing sections. The causes of the yield change for every section are discussed . The output of the model shows that the total grain yields in 1998～2005 will increase by 2 52% a year on average. By discussing with the experts concerned, this average increasing rate is thought to be appropriate.