公众订阅气象服务短信行为研究

Study on SMS subscription behavior of the public for meteorological services

随着移动电话在中国的普及,气象服务短信已经成为气象信息传播的三大主要手段之一。基于课题组2009年调查数据,运用非参数检验、Logistic回归和判定数模型对公众订阅气象服务短信行为进行研究。结果表明:不同性别、不同居住地、不同年龄、不同学历和不同收入的公众在订阅气象服务短信行为上均存在显著差异。公众对天气预报能否节省费用的认可度、收入、居住地和预报准确性及性别等因素显著影响短信订阅行为,其中公众对天气预报能否节省费用的认可度与公众收入是最重要的影响因素;如果公众认为天气预报能节省费用,则其订阅气象服务的概率会提高59.1%;同时,公众收入越高,其订阅气象服务的概率越高,月收入每增加一个层次(问卷所设计的层次),订阅气象服务短信的概率可提高23.1%。本研究对于提高气象服务短信订阅率,进而进一步提升公众气象服务效益有一定借鉴意义。

With the popularity of mobile phones in China, SMS weather service has become one of the three main means in the field of weather information dissemination. Based on the survey data collected in 2009, the SMS subscription behavior of the public was analyzed by the methods of a non-parametric test, a logistic regression and a tree model. The results show that there are significantly behavioral differences among the public for SMS subscription because of differences in gender, place of residence, age, educational background and income. Whether weather service can save the cost, public income, residence, forecast accuracy and gender could significantly affect the SMS subscription behavior, and the first two factors are the most important to the subscription behavior among all factors. The probability of SMS subscription would increase 59. 1% if the public think that weather service can save the cost. At the same time, the higher the public＇ s income is, the higher the probability of SMS subscription is. The probability of SMS subscription increases 23.1% whert the monthly income increases one level （ level is designed by the questionnaire）. This study could provide references for increasing the SMS subscription rates and improving the effectiveness of public weather services.