地方政府市政债券发行的安全规模研究——以上海市政债券发行为例

Research on the Secarity Pattern of Local Government Issuring Bonds

我国地方政府自行发债已开始试点,由于地方政府经验尚浅,必将面临许多问题,因此从发债规模的角度展开论述,运用适当改造后的KMV模型研究地方政府债券发行的安全规模是十分有必要的。以上海市为例,首先运用计量方法回归预测出2011年的上海市的地方财政收入,然后确定地方财政收入的担保比例,最后运用上述KMV模型,得出不同发债规模下所对应的违约率,并通过对违约率的定位得出上海市地方政府债券的安全发行规模。

The local governments in China, which will meet a lot of problems because of lacking experience, have begun to try to issue municipal bonds independently. Therefore, it is necessary to discuss from the perspective of the issue size and use the KMV model which has been proper transformed to study the safe scale of municipal bonds issued by local governments. Taking Shanghai as an example, first, use measurement regression method to predict the local fiscal revenue of Shanghai in 2011. Then, determine the guarantee proportion of the local fiscal revenue. Last, use the KMV model issue size and find the safe scale of municipal bonds above to issued by obtain the default rate corresponding to different local governments by fixing the default rate