南沙首次西南季风潮爆发迟早的分析及预报

Analysis and Forecasting for Break-time of Southwester Monsoon Surge in Nansha Islands

利用１９６９～１９７８年全球网格点逐月海表温度资料、１９６９～１９８９年天气图资料和北半球５００ｈＰａ月平均高度及距平图资料，分析了南沙（５°～１２° Ｎ、 １１０°～１２０° Ｅ）首次西南季风潮（第一次连续出现２天以上风速≥１１ｍ／ｓ的西南风）爆发迟早与其前期北半球的５００ｈＰａ高度值和海表温度的关系，发现首次季风潮爆发的迟早与４月份东亚沿岸中纬度地区５００ｈＰａ的高度、３～５月南海和４月日本东部海面的海表温度呈正相关，即高度高、海表温度高，季风潮爆发迟，反之爆发早。并在这基础上归纳季风潮爆发的中、长期预报指标。

The monsoon surge is studied by using the grid-mesh data of global monthly-mean Sea Surface Temperature(SST) (1969 - 1978 ) and data of monthly-mean height and anomaly of 850 hPa in Northern Hemisphere(1969 - 1989). The onset time of monsoon surge and the height of 850hPa in Northern Hemisphere and SST are discussed. It shows that the onset time of monsoon surge is positively correlated with the coastal height of 500hPa in the area of the Eastern Asia at middle Iatitude on April and the SST over the NanSha Island. The middle and long-term forecast index is proposed.