中国粮食实现稳定增产了吗?——基于1978—2009年粮食主产区粮食产量的H-P滤波分解

Has Chinese Crop Production Increased Stably? Based on Crop Production H-P Filter in Major Crop Producing Areas:1978-2009

为从定量视角检验中国粮食是否实现稳定增产,通过收集1978—2009年12个主要产粮省份粮食产量和播种面积数据,计算各省粮食单产,同时构建H-P滤波分解模型,测算中国粮食主产区粮食产量的长期趋势与短期波动,并对短期波动的收敛性进行Mann-Whitney检验。研究发现:就长期趋势来看,中国粮食主产区粮食产量自1978年以来保持持续、稳定增产,但是进入2000年以后粮食增产趋势趋于平缓;就短期波动来看,粮食生产波幅总体较为稳定,但自2004年以来粮食短期波动呈现收敛性,粮食增长强度弱于上世纪80年代水平。

In order to test whether Chinese crop production ：has increased stably, data on crop produc- tion and planting areas have been collected, and the average production is calculated. H -P filter model is built up to decompose the long term trend and the short term fluctuation, the Mann-Whitney test is carried out to verify whether the fluctuation is convergent. Research finds out that： on the long term perspective, Chinese crop production has kept stable increase since 1978, but the increase speed is slowing; based on the short term fluctuation perspective, the fluctuation rang is reasonable, but since 2004 the fluctuation intensity has been convergent and it was smaller than that of 1980＇s.