甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略探析

National Strategies for Addressing Climate Change Via Methane Emissions

甲烷的全球变暖潜势是二氧化碳的72倍(20年水平),但其在大气中的寿命短于二氧化碳,可以作为优先减排对象。中国的甲烷排放十分突出,甲烷减排在应对气候变化国家战略中具有重要的基础性地位,然而在政策研究中,甲烷受到的关注程度远低于二氧化碳。本文基于甲烷排放研究的相关进展,首次系统性地论述了中国甲烷排放与应对气候变化国家战略之间的关系。主要结论是:甲烷排放的有效控制和减缓可以成为中国温室气体减排的重要组成部分,甲烷等温室气体的减排战略要用"系统减排"思路替代传统的"末端减排"思路;甲烷系统减排的策略和实施措施不仅需要重视主要排放部门(如煤炭开采与洗选业,农业)的直接末端减排,更需要突出强调建设活动、城市消费、资本投资和出口贸易等消费端的间接体现减排;在国际气候谈判中通过纳入甲烷排放,可以至少在五个方面丰富和支撑中国的国家立场,如从承诺"单位GDP二氧化碳减排"向承诺"单位GDP温室气体减排"转变。

Methane （CH4 ） is a potent greenhouse gas with the global warming potential 72 times greater than that of CO2 over a horizon of 20 years, though it remains in the atmosphere for a much shorter period. Stabilizing methane emissions as a potential policy target can dramatically contribute to greenhouse gas reduction in the near-tenn. Methane emission in China is remarkably important, which plays an important role in the making of national strategies for addressing climate change. In contrast with the ever-increasing focus for China＇s CO2 emission, policy research on CH4 emission receives relatively little attention. This study represents the first comprehensive effort to assess China＇s national strategies for addressing climate change by considering CH4 emission systematically based on the recent research progress. The main conclusions are as follows： methane emission control and reduction could become an essential part of GHG emission mitigation in China; systems mitigation strategies rather than direct end mitigation strategies should be effectively designed; to systemically reduce CH4 emissions, we have to pay equal attention to the direct emission of production on site in the sectors of coal mining and dressing and agriculture, and to the embodied emission induced by the final demand in terms of construction activities, urban consumption, capital investment and export trade. Corresponding concrete policies for emission mitigation are addressed. Integrating China＇s methane emission can also contribute to establishing China＇s standpoints in the global climate negotiation. Five national standpoints, such as ＇ commitment to achieving GHG emissions per GDP reduction instead of single CO2 emissions per GDP reduction＇ , are recommended and elucidated in detail to suit the CH4 emission situation in China.