河南省国内旅游市场发展趋势预测

Predication of Development Trend in Henan Domestic Tourism Market

根据河南省2000—2011年国内旅游市场游客数量统计数据,运用SPSS软件建立立方曲线趋势预测模型,对河南省国内旅游市场发展趋势进行预测.结果显示,预测模型的预测平均精度高达93.63%,立方曲线趋势预测方法可以较好地应用于河南国内旅游市场预测.未来河南省国内旅游市场将保持持续上升的趋势,2015年河南省国内旅游市场游客数量预计为4.04亿人.基于预测结果,提出了促进河南国内旅游发展的相关建议:即加大旅游宣传,提高景点知名度;改善旅游设施,提高接待能力;完善管理体制,促进协调发展.

According to the statistical data of the number of visitor in Henan domestic tourism market during 2000 to 2011, the article uses the software of SPSS to build the curve model to predict the number of visitor in Henan domestic tourism market. The average precision of the predict model is 93.63%, it means that the model is enough to predict the future development of Henan domestic tourism market. The study has concluded that the development of Henan domestic tourism will edge up, and with the related policy, the growth of it will be sooner. The number of visitor will up to 404 million in 2015. Based on the prediction, there are some suggestion for the development of Henan domestic tourism, such as increasing the tourism promotion, awareness of the attractions, tourism facilities, reception capacity, management system and promoting the coordinated development.