用青藏高原1～3月OLR作我国夏季降水预报的探讨

Discussion on China Summer Precipitation Forecast With Qinghai-Xizang Plateau OLR of Jan to Mar

对青藏高原 1～ 3月OLR与我国夏季降水进行时空综合的EOF分析 ,所得高原OLR的时空特征与其单独EOF分析的时空特征十分相似 ,由此 ,对时空综合EOF分析法拟合降水场的收敛速度进行了分析 ,探讨了用高原 1～ 3月OLR预报我国夏季降水场的可行性 ,并对预报误差的原因进行了分析。

From Combined EOF analysis of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau OLR of Jan to Mar and China summer rainfall,it was found that the space-time feature and that of EOF analysis of Plateau OLR is similar, then, the convergence rate of Combined EOF method fitting China summer rain field was analysed,and the feasibility of forecasting China summer rain field with Plateau OLR of Jan to Mar discussed,and the reason of forecast error analysed