基于GM(1,1)模型的山西省人口预测

The Prediction of Shanxi Population Based on GM(1,1) Model

根据2001年至2009年的山西省人口变化特征,选择GM(1,1)模型的3种形式并借助EX-CEL、MATLAB等软件对山西省人口总量进行了数值拟合分析,并利用这3种模型对山西省人口总量作预测。通过检验分析,模型的预测精度大都大于99.9%,其中指数模型的预测精度最高。并预测在今后一段时间内,山西省人口将继续保持低自然增长率,山西省人口总量到2030年预计将增加到3 866.024 2万人。

Based on the population growth features in Shanxi from 2001 to 2009, with the help of EXCEL, MATLAB, this paper analyzes the population in Shanxi with three GM （ 1,1 ） models. Through the test analysis, the accuracy of prediction of these models are all more than 99.9%. Then the paper utilizes the information provided in the models to predict the popula-tion. The analysis shows that in the coming period, the population in Shanxi will continue keep low growth rate, and the total population will reach 3 866. 024 2 by the year 2030.