中国近46年冬季气温序列变化的研究

Studies on winter temperature variation in China in 1951~1997

利用 1 95 1～ 1 997年中国大陆 6 95个站的实测气温资料和纬度余弦加权平均法建立了全国及 8个区域近 46年冬季气温的时间序列 ,并对其变化特征作了分析研究。结果表明 :我国冬季气温总体上呈非连续的增暖趋势 ,线性变化约为0 .1 5 5℃· ( 1 0 a) - 1 ,90年代较 5 0年代约上升了 0 .6 1℃ ,其中 1 985年以后的增暖极为明显 ;冬季气温变暖不完全是由夜间最低气温引起的 ,最高气温的变化也是近期气温增暖的重要特征 ;青藏高原地区冬季气温 5 0年代最暖 ,气温变化的总趋势表现为变冷。

Based on the observational temperature over 695 stations in China from 1951 to 1997,winter temperature series over 8 regions and China are constructed in terms of a method which the average is weighted by the cosine of the latitude,to investigate their variation features.Results show that:1)winter temperature displays a discontinuous warming trend on the whole,with the linear trend of about 0.155℃·(10a) -1 and the increment of about 0.61℃ from 1950s to 1990s,which is remarkable especially after 1985;2)such a warming trend is contributed not only to the minimum temperature,but also to the maximum temperature variation;3)winter temperature over Tibetan plateau is getting colder with the warmest period in 1950s.