基于有序聚类分析的房地产周期波动与影响因素研究

Periodical Fluctuation and Influential Factors of Real Estate Based on Ordinal Clustering Analysis

在如今我国楼市出现大幅波动的情况下,有必要对楼市的波动周期进行研究。通过查阅大量文献,对文献其进行归纳总结,选取出合理的指标体系进行研究。利用选取的指标体系,使用有序样品聚类的方法,找出内部差异性最小而各段差异性最大的时间点,作为房地产波动周期的转折点划分出来,得出我国楼市的波动情况。利用系统聚类的方法对楼市的波动进行研究以验证有序样品聚类方法的正确性。最后使用因子分析法,找出影响楼市波动的最主要因素。

Nowadays, with the wild fluctuation of real estate market in China, it is necessary to conduct research on such a phenomenon. To start with, by consulting large amounts of literature study, this paper summarizes the literatures and selects a reasonable indicator system for appropriate study. With the method of ordinal clustering as well as the selected indicator system, the points of time characterized by its minimum internal differences and maximum differences between periods are chosen as the turning points for the real estate fluctuation cycles, which may lead to some conclusions on the fluctuation of the real estate in China. Then the method of hierarchical clustering is adopted to analyze the real estate fluctuation in order to validate the soundness of the method involved. Finally, the approach of factor analysis is employed to find out the key factors that account for the fluctuation of the real estate.