出口规模、结构调整与碳排放增长——基于浙江省投入产出表分析

The Scale of Export Trade、the Structural Adjustment and the Growth of Carbon Emissions:an Analysis of the I-O Tables in Zhejiang Province

基于投入产出模型,测算了浙江省2002、2005、2007年分行业出口贸易内涵CO2排放量,发现浙江省主要出口内涵CO2排放集中在传统劳动密集型行业和高碳行业。通过计量回归模型发现,贸易规模对出口内涵CO2影响显著,但其作用在减弱。进一步,按2002～2005、2005～2007两个阶段分解了出口内涵CO2变化的影响因素,结果表明:不断扩大的出口贸易规模仍旧是内涵CO2增长的最主要因素,技术进步在一定程度上降低了内涵CO2排放,但结构调整却导致了其排放量增长,并且其作用在增强。

This paper calculates the carbon emissions embodied in trade produced by Zhejiang＇s export based on input-output model in the year of 2002, 2005 and 2007. It mainly concentrated in the sectors of traditional labor-intensive industries and high-carbon industries. Regression model shows that the scale of export trade significantly affects the embodied CO2, but its role is weakening. Further, the paper decom- poses the factors which are leading to the changes in embodied CO2 in trade during the period of 2002- 2005 and 2005-2007. Results showed that： the expanding scale of export trade is still the most important factor causing the growth of embodied CO2, technological advances to some extent reduces the emissions of embodied CO2, but the structural adjustment has led to the growth of their emissions, and its role is growing.