摘要
通过测算中部地区1995～2010年间碳排放状况及LMDI影响因素分解分析,发现经济规模的扩大是拉动中部人均碳排放的决定因素,其累积排放效应远高于能源效率和能源结构的碳减排效应。基于IPAT方程对中部地区碳减排与经济增长最优情景的定量分析表明,适宜中部地区2020年和2030年的最优低碳发展情景分别是"中增长、高效率"和"低增长、低效率"。
By measuring the carbon emissions of six provincesin centralChina from 1995 to 2010 and taking LM- DI factor decomposition analysis, this paper suggests that economic expansion is the dominant factor causing the growth of central region＇ s per capita carbonemissions, whose cumulativeemission effects are much higher than thecarbon reductioneffects brought by energy efficiency and energy structure. On the basis of scenario analysis and IPAT equation, the paper further makes optimal scenario analysis on the economicgrowth andcarbonreduction of the centralChina, and the results show that in 2020 and 2030, respectively, the optimallow carbondevelopmentscenario for the central China is ＂moderate growth, highefficiency＂ and＂ lowgrowth, low efficiency＂.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2012年第7期126-128,F0003,共4页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社科基金项目"我国低碳经济发展路径与政策研究"(10BJL034)
国家发展和改革委员会地区经济司项目"‘十二五’促进中部崛起重大思路研究--以低碳工业化和低碳城镇化引领中部绿色崛起"(20102617)
关键词
中部地区
因素分解
低碳发展情景
central China
factor decomposition
low - carbon development
