中国主权资产负债表及其风险评估(下)

China’s Sovereign Balance Sheet and Its Risk Assessment(Ⅱ)

2000——2010年,中国的国民资产负债表呈快速扩张之势。对外资产、基础设施以及房地产资产迅速积累,构成资产扩张的主导因素。这记载了出口导向发展战略之下中国工业化与城镇化加速发展的历史进程。在负债方,各级政府以及国有企业的负债以高于私人部门的增长率扩张。这凸显了政府主导经济活动的体制特征。对主权资产负债表的风险评估表明:(1)总体上,中国主权净值为正,因而,在相当一段时间内,发生主权债务危机的概率极低;(2)近期的风险点主要体现在房地产信贷与地方债务上,而中国的长期风险则更多集中在对外资产负债表、企业债务与社保欠账上。这些风险大都是或有负债风险,且与过去的发展方式密切相关;(3)主权债务动态的模拟进一步揭示出维持经济增长率与利率之差对于化解债务风险的重要性。因此,转变经济发展方式,保持经济可持续增长,是应对主权债务风险的根本途径。

During 2000-2010, the national balance-sheet of China demonstrated a rapid expansion. The accumulation of external wealth, infrastructure and housing assets constitutes the dominant drivers of assets expansion, which recorded the historical process of the structural change of industrialization under export-led strategy and the accelerating urbanization. The liability expansion of all levels of government and SOEs, which overtakes the private sector, indicates the institutional feature of government dominance in China＇ s economic activities. Further analysis on the risk assessment of sovereign balance sheet shows： （ 1 ） Generally, China＇ s sovereign equity is positive thus there＇ s almost no possibility for China to have a sovereign debt crisis. （2） the short-term sovereign balance sheet risk is housing credit and local government debt, while the medium to long run risk is concentrated in external balance sheet, corporate debt and social security account. These risks are mostly contingent liabilities and closely related to the traditional development model. （3）the simulation of debt dynamics shows maintaining the difference between GDP growth rate and interest rate is crucial for debt liquidation. Therefore, transforming the development model and sustaining economic growth are the fundamental approaches to cope with sovereign debt risk.