开放经济视角下国际金融危机对中国经济的影响——来自1994-2010年省级面板数据的实证证据

The Influence of International Financial Crisis on China's Economy Based on the Perspective ofOpen Economy: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Provincial Level Panel Data through 1994-2010

随着开放程度的提高,中国与世界经济的联系变得更为密切,且更易受外部冲击的影响。本文应用1994-2010年中国省级面板数据,分析本轮金融危机对中国经济的总体及时期异质性影响。研究发现,中国经济所受总体影响在国际金融危机爆发之初较为显著;此次金融危机通过出口和FDI对中国经济的冲击明显,且在危机后持续加强;受长期出口导向型增长模式的影响,进口对中国经济增长的促进作用不显著,但在国际金融危机期间可起到调整国内供求结构及拉动经济增长作用。最后本文就如何应对和缓解外部冲击对中国经济的影响进行针对性战略思考。

With the increase of open economy,the relationships between China and world economy become more and more close,and China's economy is easier to be affected by external economic shock.The panel data of Chinese provinces through 1994-2010 are employed to analyze the general and time-varying influence of current financial crisis on China's economy.The results indicate that,the general influence from international financial crisis is significant at the beginning of the outbreak of crisis,that the influence through export and FDI exerted to China's economy is significant and increasing after the crisis for a specific period,that based on long-term growth pattern of export-led,the promotion of import to China's economy is not significant,but the import can adjust the internal structure of supply and demand in domestic market during the crisis.Finally,recommendations regarding ways to cope with and relieve the influence from external shock on China's economy are proposed.