基于改进生态足迹模型的兰州市生态可持续评价

Ecological sustainability evaluation of Lanzhou City based on the improved ecological footprint method

运用改进后的生态足迹模型计算了兰州市2005～2009年的生态足迹与生态容量,通过对比分析得出兰州市生态经济发展的可持续状况,为区域可持续发展提供参考资料和理论依据.为提高评价结果的准确性,本研究引入改进后的生态足迹模型并以5年时间序列克服生态足迹动态性不足的缺点.改进后的模型从我国的实际情况出发,重新确立了指标,改进了相应的计算方法.结果表明:在研究时段内,兰州市人均生态足迹从2005年的2.022 3hm2上升到2009年的2.107 2hm2,增长了4.15%,人均生态容量由2005年的0.562 7hm2下降到2009年的0.524 0hm2,下降了6.88%,5a平均生态足迹约为生态容量的3.8倍,人均生态赤字达1.541 7hm2.表明兰州市人口对资源环境的压力超过承载力3.8倍,差距仍在逐年增加,其中化石能源地生态足迹和生态赤字的贡献率最大;草地的退化是导致生态承载力下降的主要原因;区域生态安全和可持续发展受到威胁.根据分析结果,本研究提出了转变能源结构与经济结构,改造生态环境等应对措施.

The ecological footprint and the ecological capacity of Lanzhou City in 2005-2009 were cal- culated with the improved ecological footprint method. The sustainable development situation of Lanzhou City was got by comparing and analyzing the results. At the same time, the reference data and theory basis for the area sustainable development were also provided. In order to improve the accuracy of the evaluation results, the improved ecological f comings of insufficient dynamics ootprint method and a 5-year time series were used to overcome the short- of ecological footprints. The improved model was more suitable for Chi- nese actual situation in indicators and calculation methods. The results showed that the per capita ecological footprint of Lanzhou City increased by 4. 15% from 2. 022 3 hm^2 in 2005 to 2. 107 2 hm2 in 2009,the per ca- pita ecological capacity increased by 6. 88% from 0. 562 7 hm^2 in 2005 to 0. 524 0 hm^2 in 2009. The five-yearaverage ecological footprint was about 3.8 times as the ecological capacity, the per capita ecological deficit was 1. 541 7 hm2. It showed that the population pressure on resources and environment in Lanzhou City ex- ceeded the carrying capacity more than 3. 8 times, the gap was still increasing. The ecological footprint of fossil fuels land accounted for the largest proportion. According to the analysis results, some measures such as changing the energy and economic structures, reforming the ecological environment were proposed.