京津科技辐射效应分析:理论假说与经验研究

Analysis of Sci-Tec Diffusion Effect in Beijing-Tianjin:Theoretical Hypotheses and Empirical Research

以京津为研究对象,在理论分析与经验归纳的基础上提出了科技辐射的强度与方向假说,并通过构建VAR模型,对理论假说进行了验证。VAR回归模型、脉冲响应和方差分解分析表明,京津科技辐射效应较弱,区域间存在科技辐射封闭与逆向辐射的特征。京津科技辐射特征并没有支持科技辐射的强度和方向假说。在此基础上,从提高科技辐射水平、畅通科技辐射渠道两个角度,提出了提升企业吸收能力、完善资本市场、建立创新网络和提升政府政策效用等建议。

Theoretical hypotheses about sci-tec diffusion intensity and direction are proposed based on theory analysis and experience summary firstly.Then these hypotheses are tested by a VAR regression,impulse response and variance decomposition in Beijing-Tianjin Area.Sci-Tec diffusion effect in Beijing-Tianjin Area are very small,and characterized by sci-tec blocking which means sci-tec diffusion takes place in each area only and reverse diffusion from Tianjin to Beijing.In other words,the results cannot support theoretical hypotheses.Finally,four policies are proposed in order to improve sci-tec efficiency that are enhancing absorptive capacity of enterprises,improving capital market,setting up innovation network,and promoting policy utility.