摘要
对鄱阳湖流域内的赣州、宜春、南昌和庐山4个气象站近60年的年降水量序列进行小波分析,研究了鄱阳湖流域降水时间序列的周期性变化规律。结果表明,鄱阳湖流域年降水量存在两个明显的周期变化,分别为30～35a和12～15a,2011年正处在30～35a周期转化的节点上,未来30a鄱阳湖流域可能将进入降水偏少的周期;而12～15a周期尺度在2000年以前比较明显,2000年以后12～15a周期特征趋于消失。通过对ENSO指数的变化周期尺度的研究,发现厄尔尼诺现象的出现周期与鄱阳湖流域年降水量周期十分相似,两者具有很高的相关性。
The latest 60-year precipitation series from the stations of Ganzhou, Yicun, Nanchang and Lushan in the Poyang Lake Basin was analyzed to identify the temporal variability. The wavelet analysis shows that there are two main time scales： 30-35 years and 12-15 years. Today is just on the turning point of the 30-35 years scale from above normal to below normal, which means less precipitation may occur in the next 30 years in the Poyang Lake Basin. The 12-15 years scale is significant before 2000, while after 2000, this scale is becoming fuzzy. The wavelet analysis of Multivariate ENSO index shows some similarities of periodicity between EI Nino and annual precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin, which means EI Nino is an important factor for determining the temporal variability of precipitation in the Poyang Lake Basin.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第1期29-31,79,共4页
Journal of China Hydrology
基金
江西省科技支撑计划项目“鄱阳湖流域洪水灾变规律研究”(科技厅编号2009DSA13800
水利厅编号200805)
