中国与印度农产品贸易的动态与前景分析

Analysis of Trade dynamics and Trade Potentials of Agricultural Products between China and India

近几年来,中国与印度的农产品双边贸易发展较快,不断增长的趋势明显,但双边贸易的不稳定性与不平衡性亦显得尤为突出。文章从实证分析的角度出发,利用出口集中度指数、产业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数等方法分析中印农产品双边贸易的现状、产品结构、发展趋势等问题。研究发现:中印两国在农产品贸易方面具有出口集中度高、以产业间贸易为主、优势农产品差异明显、双边贸易互补性强、发展潜力巨大等特征。

In recent years, the agricultural trade between China and India has developed rapidly, and the growing trend is obvious, but the instability and imbalance of bilateral trade is particularly prominent. Based on the perspective of empirical analysis, and using the tools of trade intensity index （TII）, intra-industry trade （IIT）, revealed comparative advantage index, and trade complementarity index （TCI）, this paper systematically analyzes the current situation, product structure and development trend of the Sino-Indian agricultural product trade. It finds that the agricultural trade between the two countries has the following characteristics： the high intensity of export trade, the low level of interindustry trade, the obvious difference of the competitive agricultural products, the strong degree of trade complementarity, and the huge potential of bilateral complementary trade development.