从国外部门角度对战前日本总供求态势的研究——基于M-L条件和贸易条件学说的分析

On Japanese AD-AS Economic Situation during the Period of Ex-WWII from the Angle of Abroad Sector:An Analysis Based on M-L Condition and Terms of Trade

对日本1900～1937年宏观经济的数量分析表明,Ex+|Em|=0.74<1,即不能满足马歇尔—勒纳条件;同时,日本的贸易条件与贸易收支为弱正相关,即如无政府干预,贸易收支的改善则依赖进出口物价而不是进出口物量。因此,数量分析支持日本的总供求态势属"供给约束型"的逻辑结论。笔者认为,分析战前日本宏观经济运行时,不应使用以"需求约束型经济"为上位前提的理论框架,特别是凯恩斯经济学的理论。

The quantitative analysis of Ex＋｜Em｜=0.74〈1, which indicates that 1900-1937 Japanese macro economy shows that the formula can not meet M-L condition, and meanwhile, Japanese terms of trade are a weak positive correlation to trade balance, which means that without the involvement of government, the improvement of trade balance depends on the price of import and export rather than the amount of import and export cargo. Therefore, the quantitative analysis supports the logic conclusion that Japanese ADAS economic situation belongs to supply-restraint style. It argues that the theory based on the supposition of demand-restraint, especially Keynesian theory, should not be adapted when analyzing the operation of Japanese macro economy during the period of ex-WWII.