工业化必然加剧电力消耗与环境污染吗——来自2000～2009年中国省际面板数据的经验研究

Has Electric Power and Environment Pollution Been Aggravated for Industry——Empirical Study with Cross-provincial Panel Data from 2000 to 2009

中国传统工业化发展模式导致高能耗、高污染。本文将工业生产总值、用电量、环境污染等纳入一个分析框架,构建面板数据误差修正模型,应用我国30个省域2000～2009年数据进行实证研究。定量分析结果表明:省域层面的用电量变化是工业经济增长的原因,工业污染对工业经济增长的影响具有时滞性,三者之间存在长期动态均衡关系,说明工业经济增长不以电力需求无限增加为前提,也不以污染无限加重为结果,各省应积极实施节电减排措施,以顺利实现新型工业化。

Nowadays it is necessary to change China＇s industrial development model of high energy consumption, high pollution. Is this transformation possible？ Taking province as a unit, the panel data method is used in this paper to analyze the relationship a- mong the gross value of industrial output, electric power and environment pollution from 2000 to 2009. The empirical test shows that economic development is closely related to power consumption. Furthermore, the estimated value of the coefficient of ECM is negative, which reveals reverse effect in the long equilibrium of economic growth, electric power and environment pollution. To better advance industrialization and achieve sustainable development, it is necessary to save electric power and reduce the pollution in provincial in- dustrial economy.