河北省海河冲击平原区日光温室面积和节水量分析与预测

Analysis and Forecast for Solar Greenhouse Area and Water Saving Amount of Alluvial Plain Region of Haihe Rive in Hebei Province

针对河北省水资源日益紧缺、设施面积逐步扩大及其灌溉用水量的增加等问题,对河北省海河冲击平原区4个分区的日光温室种植面积、种植模式、水分生产效率及灌溉技术节水量进行调查统计和分析计算,采用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测了各分区2020年和2030年日光温室的发展面积及灌溉技术节水量。预测发展总面积分别为5.48万hm2和5.64万hm2,节水量分别为17 758.1万m3和18 692.9万m3。

Aiming at the problems as scarcity of water, expansion of facility areas and increasing of water use amount, some indexesof greenhouse of the alluvial plain region of Haihe Rive in Hebei province, as cropping area, cropping pattern, water use efficiency and water saving amount, are analyzed and calculated in Hebei Province. The Gray model （1, 1） is used to predict the area and water saving amount in 2020 and 2030. It is predicted that the areas are 5.48 × 10^4 and 5. 64 × 10^4 hm^2 and the water saving amount are 1.78×10^8 and 1.87×10^8 m^3, respectively.