农业基础设施建设水平与农业经济发展的协整关系分析

Co-integration Test on Agricultural Infrastructure and Agricultural Development

农业基础设施是传统农业向现代农业转变的重要物质基础。近年来关于农业基础设施建设与农业经济发展内在关系已经有了较多的研究,但大多是局限于农业基础设施及机构对于农业经济发展贡献度的定性和定量分析,而关于两者之间内在的变化机理关系研究不是很多。采用1980-2009年的样本数据,通过对数据更为合理的处理,运用协整理论分析农业基础设施建设与农业GDP之间的之间的关系,结论显示农业基础设施建设对农业GDP短期的因果关系不明显,但存在长期的因果关系,因此农业基础设施建设必须具有一定的超前性,才能满足农业生产的不断发展。

Agricultural infrastructure is a physical foundation for the transform from traditional agriculture to modern one. Many researches have been carried on the inner relation between agricultural infrastructure and agricultural economy,but mostly focus on qualitive and quantitative analysis of agricultural infrastructure contribution to agricultural economy, while the change mechanism between them are scarcely studied. Based on sample data from 1980--2009 and reasonable treatment,the relation between agricultural infrastructure and agricultural econo- my is studied with co-integration theory. The results show that in the short time agricultural infrastructure is not a cause for agricultural economy, but in the long run it works. Thus, the construction of agricultural infrastructure must be precedently carried out in order to impel the development of agricultural economy.