玉树7.1级地震前地震拟合优度异常分析

Analysis of earthquake optimization mimesis before Yushu M_s 7.1 earthquake

中强地震孕育过程中,震中周边一定区域内的小震活动会因次级破裂的非均匀性,而在各震级档的比例分配失调,会导致采用古登堡公式拟合时的拟合优度下降。利用该规律,对玉树地震前一定区域内的地震,运用地震拟合优度进行计算,结果表明,在玉树地震前一段时间,震中周边一定区域和青海省及邻区地震拟合优度均表现出明显的下降异常。该方法可为地震监测能力较弱地区的中期地震预报提供参考依据,弥补地震前兆台网分布稀疏的不足。

In the process of moderately strong earthquakes preparation, the magnitudes of small earthquakes activity near the epicenter may anomalies because of heterogeneous fractures, and the optimization mimesis may be dropped which is calculated by Gutenberg relation. The optimization mimesis of Yushu Ms 7.1 earthquake is calculated, and the results show that the calculation presented the obvious descending anomalies in neighboring the epicenter before the event. This method may provide the reference for earthquake prediction in Yushu area.