后苏联时期的俄罗斯政治领袖

Russian Scenario after the Presidential Election

政治领袖是苏联和俄罗斯政治体系中的关键组成部分,在后苏联时代的俄罗斯政治生活中占有特别重要的地位。俄罗斯政治文化一直偏爱强势而有个性的政治领袖,从1917年以来的苏联领袖大多都秉持了这一特点。改革派领导人戈尔巴乔夫由于自己的优柔寡断而丧失了对于改革乃至国家的控制,而与其个人风格和成长经历迥异的叶利钦经历了一系列复杂的政治斗争,最终成为了新生的俄罗斯联邦的领袖。他推动俄罗斯进行了激进的市场化改革,希望使俄罗斯走上以市场经济为特征的"文明之路",但由于复杂的国际国内环境以及政策方面的失误,这一尝试最终以失败而告终。虽然他是俄罗斯第一任民选总统,但叶利钦自相矛盾的执政风格、不稳定的心理状态和诸多生活上的不良习惯都令人诟病,他虽然赢得了竞选连任,但由于身体原因和杜马掣肘,很难有所作为。在经历了复杂的甄选之后,他选择了普京作为自己的接班人,并且帮助普京顺利当选。有克格勃背景的普京是一位具有开拓精神和无比坚韧的性格的领导人。在接任总理之后,很快凭借自己的超群才能,解决了车臣问题,并且有效提高了社会福利,从而迅速提高了自己的威望,以绝对优势当选总统。执政之后,普京很快推动了俄罗斯政治制度新的"转型",他通过除了暴力之外的一切手段强化国家权力,打击"寡头",取消地方选举,限制独立媒体,通过"西罗维基"掌控权力,最终使整个政权集中于自己的手中,形成了被称为"可控民主"或"主权民主"的普京体制。在八年任期结束后,普京拒绝了第三个总统任期,而选择了一项略显复杂的政治安排。将总统职务交给自己的亲信梅德韦杰夫,本人则以总理和统一俄罗斯党主席的身份继续参政,形成了一种特殊的"双头制"政权,直到2012年重返克里姆林宫。随着时代的变迁,俄罗斯正处于发展的十字路口。普京的重新执政对于俄罗斯未来的改革可能将会是一个积极的因素,因为他拥有足够的权力推动改革的进行。虽然面对诸多不确定的挑战,但仍然有成功的机会。

Political leadership is a key component of Soviet and Russian political system. It plays a particularly significant role in post-Soviet Russian political life. A proclivity for strong and personalized leadership is a defining feature of the political culture of Russia. Since 1917, most Soviet leaders had this feature. Due to indecision of reformist leader Mikhail Gorbachev, he finally losthis control over reform and even the country. However, with completely different personal styles and growth experiences, Yeltsin eventually became leader of nascent Russian Federation through a series of complicated political struggles. He propelled radical market-oriented reforms in Russia, aiming at leading Russia to a ＂civilized way＂ characterized by market economy. However, because of complex international and domestic environment, as well as policy mistakes, this attempt ultimately ended in failure. Although Yeltsin is Russian first elected president, yet his contradictory governing style, unstable mentality and many bad habits led to strong criticism. Despite victory over the succeeding election, he could not make difference due to such constraints as health problems and the Duma. After a complex selection, Yeltsin chose Putin as his successor and helped Putin successfully elected. With KGB background, Putin is a leader with pioneering spirit mad extremely tenacious character. Being a prime minister, through his superior capabilities, Putin solved the Chechen issue and improved social welfare efficiently, rapidly improving his own prestige, and was elected president by an absolute advantage. During his term, Putin quickly promoted new ＂transition＂ in Russian political system and strengthened the national power by all means except violence. He combated ＂oligarchs＂, cancelled local elections, restricted independent media and controlled power through ＂Siloviki＂, and finally gained control over the whole authority, forming the Putin system, also known as ＂controlled democracy＂ or ＂sovereign democracy＂. After his eight-year term, Putin refused the third and chose slightly complex political arrangements. Passing the presidency to Medvedev, his trusted follower, he himself continued to participate in politics as Prime Minister and chairman of the United Russia Party, forming a special ＂diarchy＂ until his returning to the Kremlin in 2012. With the eclipse of times, Russia is at the crossroads for development. For Russian future reform, Putin＇s returning to power may be a positive factor because he has enough power to promote reforms. Despite various uncertainties and challenges, there are still chances of success.