基于灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的中国水产品年总产量的预测

Application of Gray Metabolic GM(1,1) in Prediction of Annual Total Yields of Chinese Aquatic Products

为预测未来5年(2011—2015年)中国水产品的年总产量。本研究基于灰色系统理论和方法,首先分别构建常规GM(1,1)模型和灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对2006—2009年中国水产品年总产量进行预测分析并比较2种模型的预测精度。然后选择预测精度较高的模型对未来5年中国水产品年总产量进行预测研究。常规GM(1,1)模型和灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对2006—2009年中国水产品年总产量预测的精度比较显示:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型预测精度更高,预测误差更小,更适用于水产品年总产量的预测研究。因此,选择灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型对中国未来5年水产品年总产量进行预测,即2011—2015年中国水产品年总产量将分别达到5532.333、5746.315、5972.634、6202.738、6443.838万t,年均增长率达到3.7%,远高于《全国渔业发展第十二个五年规划(2011—2015年)》设定年均增长2.2%的目标。本研究结果表明:灰色新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型适用于水产品产量预测的研究;2011—2015年中国水产品总产量完全可以实现渔业"十二五"规划设定目标。

In order to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead （2011 to 2015）, an ordinary GM （1,1） model and three metabolism GM （1,1） models, which were based on the gray system theory, were first established to predict annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products from 2006 to 2009. Meanwhile, comparison analysis in prediction accuracies between the ordinary GM （1,1） model and metabolism GM （1,1） models was performed. The results of comparison analysis showed that the gray metabolism GM （1,1） model had higher value of prediction accuracy and was more suitable for predicting annual total yields of aquatic products, comparing to the ordinary GM （1,1） model. Therefore, the gray metabolism GM （1,1） model was then chose to predict the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead （2011--2015）. Predicting results showed that the annual total yields of Chinese aquatic products from 2011 to 2015 would respectively reached 55.32333, 57.46315, 59.72634, 62.02738, 64.43838 million tons. At the same time, the annual growth rate in aquatic products yield could be 3.7%, which was much higher than the objective annual growth rate （2.2%） of China＇ s 12th Five-Year Plan. Results above indicated that： （1）the gray metabolism GM （1,1） model was very suitable for predicting yields of aquatic products; （2） the total yield of Chinese aquatic products five years ahead could completely reached the target of China＇ s 12th Five-Year Plan.