北京市农民农业收入影响因素计量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Factors Influencing Farmers'Income in Beijing

农民收入问题是新农村建设的核心问题。在北京都市型农业的大力发展下,种植业对农民的增收起着不可忽视作用。为了考虑种植业对农民收入的影响,选取了1978—2009北京市统计年鉴中相关的10项指标,利用SPSS进行因子分析,对农业生产基本投入、农业生产追加投入、水土涵养3个主因子建立了线性回归方程,得到农民收入与各项农业影响因素的直接关系。从回归方程可以看出,农业生产追加投入因子对农民增收影响最大,说明了有组织规模的经营方式有利于增加农民的收入。同时表明,增加农业生产基本投入对农民增收的影响也较大,做好水土涵养有利于促进农民增收。

The question of farmers＇ income was the core of the construction of new countryside in China. With the great development of Beijing urban agriculture, planting industry has played an essential role in increasing farmers＇ income. By using SPSS factor analysis, the author choose 10 relating indexes from the Beijing Statistical Yearbook from 1978 to 2009, set up a linear regression equation involving the three principal factors of basic input in agricultural production, additional input in agricultural production, and soil and water conservation and got the direct relation between farmers＇ income and various factors influencing agriculture. From the linear regression equation, it could be seen that the factor of additional input in agricultural production has the most important influence, and a big scale management was also beneficial to increasing farmers＇ income. Furthermore, the increase of basic input, as well as soil and water conservation, plays a crucial role in increasing farmers＇ income.