ECRS方法在河北及周边地区的应用研究

The application of ECRS methods in Hebei Province and around area

应用地震对应相关谱(ECRS)方法,对河北及周边3个研究区内的中强地震前多种地震学参数的综合异常特征进行定量化的识别研究,并进行多年的动态外推预测及其效能检验。结果表明,目前晋冀蒙交界地区和晋冀鲁豫交界地区滑动极值相关度曲线未出现明显异常,唐山地区2010年下半年以来出现高值异常。对2002—2011年进行逐年动态外推预测检验,唐山地区和晋冀鲁豫交界地区预测准确率均为56%。动态外推预测避免了使用目标地震发生以后的资料逆向贡献于震前预测,对于地震预报实践可能更具有指导意义。

Applying the Earthquake Corresponding Relevancy Spectrum （ECRS） method, the three research of Hebei and surrounding area before moderate strong earthquakes in various seismological parameter synthetic characteristic of anomalies were quantitatively recognized. At the same time, the application of the method of dynamic prediction for many years and performance test. The results show that, at present the MSER in the margin region of Shanxi, Hebei provinces and Inner Mongulia autonomous region and in the margin region of Shanxi, Hehei, Shandong and Henan provinces is not obviously abnormal, but the MSER in Tangshan area since the second half of 2010 appears high value anomaly. From 2002 to 2011 year after year dynamic extrapolation forecast test, the forecast accurate rate of this method in the margin region of Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong and Henan provinces and Tangshan area is 56%. Dynamic extend forecast avoids to use the data after the earthquake reverse contribution to the prediction before the earthquake. The method could be more significance for the earth-quake prediction practice.