基于大宗粮食作物的黑龙江省农用天气预报研究进展

Research Progress of Agricultural Weather Forecast Technology in Heilongjiang Province Based on Grain Crop

阐述了农用天气预报内涵,指出农业气象指标、一季稻生产适宜性评价、春玉米生长发育气象适宜程度诊断技术、农用天气预报业务系统是黑龙江省大宗粮食作物农用天气预报关键技术,农业气象指标是农用天气预报的根本依据;一季稻生产适宜性评价和春玉米生长发育气象适宜程度诊断技术是核心技术;业务系统是关键技术的集成及业务应用平台。基于已有研究成果、文献等分析遴选建立技术指标数据库。利用层次分析法分析明确了水库和塘坝数量以及生长季降水量是影响水稻生产的重要因素,水资源是保证黑龙江水稻生产可持续发展的首要条件,黑龙江省一季稻生产的优势地区主要集中于哈尔滨大部。基于春玉米不同生长发育期对温度、降水及日照的需求,建立玉米各气候因子适宜度模型,分析表明玉米对3个气候因子的适宜性表现为日照>温度>降水,可见水分是限制玉米生产的主要气候因子。利用计算机高级程序编译及集成技术研发的农用天气预报业务系统能够实现玉米和一季稻农用天气预报,系统运行良好,服务效果理想。

The concept of agricultural weather forecast was expounded,agricultural meteorological index,agricultural resources evaluation of rice production,diagnosis technology of meteorological suitability degree of maize development,agricultural weather forecast operational system are the key techniques of agricultural weather forecast for grain crop in Heilongjiang Province.Agricultural meteorology index is the fundamental basis of agricultural weather forecast,agricultural resources evaluation of rice production and diagnosis technology of meteorological suitability degree of maize are core technologies;operational system is key technology integration and applications platform.Based on the research results,agricultural meteorology index databases are established.Using AHP,this paper makes clear that the number of reservoirs and embankments and precipitation in the growth season are the main factors influencing the rice production,water resources is the primary condition to ensure the sustainable development of rice production,and resource advantage area of rice production is located in the Harbin area.Based on demand of maize growth for temperature,precipitation and sunshine,maize suitability of the climate factor models are established,the results show that sunshine is the most appropriate factor for the maize growth,followed by temperature,and water is the worst factor,which explain that water is the main climatic factors limiting maize production.The agricultural weather forecast system based on the compilation and integration of advanced computer program can provide meteorological information of maize and rice,the system operates well and achieves good results.