GM（1，1）模型在宁海县人口规模预测上的应用

GM（1，1）灰色预测模型是灰色系统理论中一种特殊的线性动态预测模型。依据宁海县2000-2009年以来户籍总人口和流动总人口的部分历史数据，建立了GM（1，1）模型，并利用该模型对宁海县未来10年来总人口的发展变化进行预测。

The population, as a key factor in the development of economy and society, composes the basic ele- ment of society. A flourishing city or regional could attract more population than normal others. The government could enact the policies and formtllate the regulations based on the total population in the regional. It is critical to fore- cast the total population in the future. The method which has been adopted in the paper should be used cautiously. The grey forecast model is a special linear dynamic model in the grey theory. Through developing the GM（1,1） model, we could forecast the total population of Ninghai County in the next 10 years which based on the household population and the floating population which data from 2000 to 2009