嘉陵江下游千年历史洪水分析

On the Historical Floods in the Lower Reaches of the Jialing River

采用历史文献法和统计分析的方法,引用历史洪水资料和实测洪水资料,分析了公元773年以来嘉陵江下游洪水的概况、洪水时间分布规律及洪水叠加组合规律。通过分析得出以下结论:1)1870年以来嘉陵江下游已确认的较大洪水共有11次,居前三位的分别是1870年、1903年、1981年的洪水;2)嘉陵江下游洪水具有明显的时间分布特征,主要发生在6～9月;3)嘉陵江下游洪水主要受涪江、嘉陵江和渠江三江的影响,三江洪水的叠加对嘉陵江下游洪灾的形成影响重大。嘉陵江下游经济发达,城镇和人口密集,加强该区域洪水研究,具有重要的现实意义,可为嘉陵江下游地区的防洪减灾提供科学依据。

The paper analyzes the overview of the flood, the time distribution of floods and the overlay combination rule of floods in the lower reaches of the Jialing River since 773 AD, in the method of historical documents and statistical analysis, referring to historical data and measured data of floods in the lower reaches of the Jialing River. Through the analysis, the author finally draws conclusion： 1） there are lltimes of floods in the lower reaches of the Jialing River assured since 1870, among which the floods in 1870, 1903 and 1981 lead the list respectively; 2） The floods in this area have obvious（displays definite） time distri- bution that the floods occur mainly in June, July , August and September;3） affected by Fu River, Jialing River and Qu River, the waters of all these three rivers can seriously influence the shape of floods in the lower reaches of the Jialing River. Because of the flourishing economy and densely populated towns, strengthening the regional floods ~ research has important practical significance which will offer scientific basis for the flood control and disaster alleviation in the area.