中美实际利差幅度对人民币实际汇率升值影响研究

Study on the Impact of China and the U.S.Real Interest Rate Margin on Real RMB Exchange Rate Appreciation

文章采用分位数回归方法分析了中美实际利差幅度对人民币实际汇率升值的影响。分析结果表明,中美实际利差对实际人民币汇率影响呈"J"形曲线分布,在利差幅度较小的情况下,中美实际利差与人民币实际汇率关系符合粘性价格货币理论,利差波动对人民币升值压力显著;现阶段的利差幅度较大,中美实际利差与人民币实际汇率关系不符合粘性价格货币理论,中美之间较大的实际利差并不是人民币升值的来源。

This paper uses quantile regression analysis of the impact of China and the U. S. real interest rate margin on real RMB exchange rate appreciation. The results show that China and the U. S. real interest rate affected on the Real RMB Exchange coefficient was “J” shaped curve. Lesser extent in the case of real interest rate margin, the relation between China, the U. S. real interest rate difference and RMB exchange conforms to the Sticky-Price Monetary theory, the China and the U. S. real interest rate changes have a significant pressure on RMB appreciation;At present, the larger China and the U. S. real interest rate differences, the relation between China, the U. S. real interest rate difference and RMB exchange doesn＇t conform to the sticky-price monetary theory, and it isn＇t the source of RMB exchange rate appreciation.