制造业结构变动与经济增长质量的关联性研究——基于陕西的数据

Correlation Research on Structure Changes in Manufacturing and Economic Growth Quality——Based on Shaanxi province

文章利用1990—2009年陕西省的年度样本数据,用制造业各行业生产总值的变动表示制造业结构变动,用全要素生产率表示经济增长质量,分别计算出制造业结构变动率和经济增长质量变动率。利用VAR模型分析陕西省制造业产业结构变动与经济增长质量之间的关系,研究表明:制造业的变动与经济增长质量之间存在一种稳定的长期关系;制造业产业产业结构的变动和经济增长质量之间为双向的Granger因果关系;制造业产业的变动对经济增长质量存在滞后的正向冲击作用,且在一定程度上提高了经济增长的质量。文章依据研究结果给出了相应的对策建议。

This paper uses annual sample data of 1990-2009, the changes of GDP in the manufacturing industry to represent the changes in manufacturing structure, and the total factor productivity to represent the quality of economic growth, calculates the rate of change in manufacturing structure and the rate of change in quality of economic growth. Building VAR model to analyze the relationship between industrial structure changes in manufacturing and economic growth quality of Shaanxi Province, empirical studies show that： there is a stable long-term relationship between the changes in the manufacturing sector and the quality of economic growth; and a two-way Granger causality is found between changes in industrial struc- ture of manufacturing and the quality of economic growth; and changes in the manufacturing industry have a lagging forward shock on the quality of economic growth, and to some extent, it improves the quality of economic growth. According to the analysis the paper gives out some recommendations to improve the quality of economic growth.