城市老人养老模式的选择意愿及影响因素分析--基于Order Probit模型的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Factors Which Influence the Will of the Aged in the Urban by Using the Ordered Probit Model

据统计,我国目前老龄人口约1.69亿,2015年总量将突破2亿,占总人口的14.8%,老龄化速度居全球首位。人口老龄化急剧发展引发的养老压力导致社会养老需求增加,而我国城市养老问题的形势更显严峻。文章选择西安市部分社区为样本,以城市社区老人作为研究对象,基于个人特征、健康状况、代际支持、孝道观念四个维度进行Order Probit模型的实证研究,得出城市老人的养老意愿呈现多元化发展,社会化养老需求不断增加,并提出要在城市社区中完善社会化养老服务,普及居家养老以满足城市老年人的养老意愿。

According to statistics, China＇s aging population is about 169 million, and it will exceed 200 million in 2015, accounting for 14. 8% of the total population, the aging rate ranks No. 1 in the world. The pension pressure triggered by the rapid development of an aging population increased the demand for social pension, and the city pension problem in China is more sever than ever. This paper chooses some representatives of the community in Xi＇an as the sample data, urban communities for the elderly as the object of study, based on personal characteristics, health station, intergenerational support and the concept of filial piety as the four dimensions of the order probit model of empirical research,gets to the conclusion that city pension willingness for the elderly diversified, social pension demand increased, and proposes to improve the socialization of pension service, universal access to home care in urban communities to meet the pension aspirations of the urban elderly.