比较优势演化、产业升级与中等收入陷阱

Comparative Advantage Evolution,Industrial Upgrading and Middle-income Trap

在比较优势演化模型的基础上,构建产业升级的路径选择模型,该模型给出了产业升级的充分必要条件。充分条件是产品空间中存在升级的目标产品,而且企业具备生产新产品的能力;必要条件是生产新产品的成本增速快于其价格增速。在中等收入阶段产业升级的必要条件容易得到满足,但必要条件的满足使得企业实现升级跳跃的临界距离变小;同时,如果向新产品跳跃的能力不足,则会使跳跃的充分条件得不到满足,这两者增加了产业升级断档的可能性,即增加了经济增长停滞的风险,而这正是中等收入陷阱的形成机理。

A model of industrial upgrading is built based on the comparative advantage evolution, which gives the sufficient and necessary condition for industrial upgrading. The sufficient condition is that a busi- ness has the capability of producing new products while the necessary condition is that the costs of producing new products grow faster than their prices. The necessary condition is easily satisfied in the middle-income stage, which shortens the jump critical value needed to realize the upgrading, and at the same time, if the sufficient condition can not be met, the probability of upgrading suspension becomes bigger, which increases the risk of economic growth stagnancy. This model explains the formation of the middle-income trap from the view of industrial upgrading.