基于AHP-CIM模型水闸工程投资风险分析

Investment Risk Analysis of Sluice Project Based on AHP-CIM Model

水闸工程是平原地区常见水利枢纽之一,近年来国家不断增加对水利工程的投入,对水闸工程的资金投入也相应增加,如何实现资源的有效配置、建立合理的水闸工程投资风险评价体系是重点研究问题.运用目前相对较成功的经济风险评价模型CIM与AHP模型,二者结合,组成AHP-CIM风险评价模型,对水闸工程项目投资风险进行分析,较好地处理了工程项目投资风险分析中的定量分析与定性分析易于脱节的问题,且运算结果精度较高,从而能为项目决策者提供决策支持.

Sluice is one of the most common hydro-junctions at the flat area. In recent years,with the increasing investment in water conservancy,sluice project will also increase the cost of money. It needs to focus the problems that how to achieve the efficient allocation of resources and establish a reasonable evaluation system of the sluice investment risks. Using the relatively successful economic risk assessment controlled interval and memory（CIM） Model and analytic hierarchy process（AHP） model to analyze the sluice project investment risk is better handling of the project investment risk analysis. It＇s easy to bridge the gap of quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and have the higher accuracy of the results, so as to the results provide decision support for project decision makers.