基于蒙特卡洛法的电压骤降的评估

The Evaluation of Voltage Sag Based on Monte Carlo

电压骤降问题作为现代电力用户所面临的最严重的电磁干扰问题之一,造成了巨大经济损失,已成为亟待解决的问题。电压骤降主要有系统故障造成,其特征量电压降落幅值和持续时间与各种故障信息有密切关系。针对电压骤降发生的随机性,提出基于概率统计的蒙特卡洛法对电压骤降进行分析评估,详细介绍了各个故障信息概率分布模型的建立,结合电磁暂态仿真软件PSCAD进行多次试验,对电压骤降的幅值、持续时间及频次进行统计,通过计算各节点的电压骤降评估指标,评估各节点受电压骤降的影响程度,为实际研究提供理论分析依据。

Voltage sag as one of the most serious problem of electromagnetic interference faced by modern pow- er users, has become a problem to be solved and created huge economic loss. Voltage sag mainly caused by fault system, and its characteristic features-voltage amplitude and duration have a close relationship with several of fault information. Ac- cording to the randomness of voltage sag, it is pre- sented a method, Monte Carlo, based on probability and statistics to evaluate voltage sag, and intro- duced the establishment of probability distribution model for various fault information. Combined with the electro-magnetic transient simulation software PSCAD to do multiple tests, and make statistics for voltage sag amplitude, duration and frequency. Through calculating voltage sag evaluation index of each node, it could evaluate voltage sag of each node by the influence degree, to provide practical research with theoretical analysis basis.