考虑技术学习效应的碳捕集系统成本比较

Comparison of cost of CO_2 capture (CC) systems with consideration of technological learning effect

燃烧后、燃烧前和富氧燃烧3种碳捕集系统在技术特点、能效表现和经济成本上都有较大的区别。对3种技术进行评价比较不仅需要结合当前的性能,同时也需考虑未来技术发展的潜力。基于技术学习曲线理论计算了3种碳捕集系统的技术学习率,并对规模化应用后的经济性进行计算、分析和比较。研究发现,当装机总量达1000 GW时,燃烧前捕集系统具有相对较低的碳捕集成本和发电成本,但其累计投资成本最高,综合来看三者在技术经济性上并无显著区别,其应用前景同时受到产业政策、环境表现等其他方面因素的影响。

Post-combustion, pre-combustion and oxy-combustion, as three CO2 capture systems, differ greatly with regards to technological characteristics, energy efficiency and economy. Evaluation and comparison of the three systems should not only take their current performances into account, but also depend on the potential of future improvement. We calculate the learning rates of the three systems, analyze and compare their economies after wide applications on the basis of technology learning curve theory. The results show that pre-combustion possesses the lowest cost of CO2 capture and cost of electricity （COE） among the three systems when their installed capacities reach 1 000 GW, while its cumulative investment is relatively high. Generally, there is no marked difference between the three systems in terms of technical economy, and the prospects of their applications are affected by some other factors such as industrial policy and environmental impact.