带有经济预期的家庭个体住房需求分析模型

A model for the housing consumption-investment development of households with economic expectation

住房政策"鼓励住房消费需求、抑制投资投机需求"为中国学术界提出了新的课题,如何界定住房消费、投资投机需求,以及如何做到鼓励住房消费需求的同时,又做到抑制投资投机需求,成为关系该政策成败亟待解决的理论问题.然而,现有的关于住房消费需求与投资需求的文献,大部分关注于家庭人口统计变量,缺乏可控制性与政策指导意义.本文首次将一系列的经济预期变量引入到住房需求分析中,提出财富收益完全消费的假定,得出以消费效用表达投资间接效用的代数式,使得住房投资需求的分析更加完善.应用静态比较分析,得出住房需求与家庭经济状况、经济预期等变量之间正负相关性的判断,为实证分析提供了严谨的理论分析基础.

The housing policy of “encouraging the consumptive demand for housing and curbing the speculative one” proposed by the Chinese Central Government puts forward such new issues as how to define the consumptive demand for housing and the speculative one, and how to encourage one but curb the other at the same time. These issues are vital to carrying out the housing policy. However, most existing relative literatures focus only on some family demographic variables, lacking of policy controllability and guidance. In this paper a series of expected economic variables are introduced into the housing demand analysis for the first time. Assuming wealth gains consuming completely after investment, investment indirect utility is expressed with consumption utility, making housing investment demand analysis more perfect. Applying comparative static analysis, the relationship between housing demand and some variable, such as the family economic status and their microeconomic expectation variable, is got. These theoretical analyses would apply some guidance to the emnirical parts.