土地囤积对房地产市场绩效的影响机制研究

The Study on Driving Mechanisms of Land Hoarding on Market Performance

本文针对当前大量存在的土地闲置现象,建立一个以投机为主要目的的土地囤积模型,证明了在高度寡占的房地产市场中,由于地价上涨预期的存在,大房地产企业前期囤积剩下的闲置土地,在未来会更多的用来倒卖而不是生产,导致整个房地产行业的生产成本并没有因为土地囤积而得到明显降低,因而也没有起到平抑房价的作用。囤积土地却因此拉开了企业之间的成本差距,作为其扩张市场的一个重要手段,大房地产企业市场势力进一步增强,造成了房地产行业市场集中度的上升。同时发现土地囤积并进一步倒卖得到的土地转让收入也是房地产企业利润的一个重要来源。最后利用动态面版系统GMM估计对土地囤积对房价、土地转让收入和房地产企业利润的影响进行了计量检验,结果也基本支持了上述结论。

This paper proves that large real estate companies hoard the remaining pre - idle land,more than the production for resale in the future, resulting in which the production cost of the entire real estate industry have not been significantly reduced and thus did not play a role in stabilizing housing price in the high degree of oligopoly market. Hoarding land,as an important means of expanding the market ,opened the gap between the cost of business to further enhance market power and raise their market concentration, while hoarding land and further income of land leasing is an important source of the revenue. Then, we estimate the effect of hoarding on housing price, income of land leasing and company revenue, and by employing system GMM, the evidence supports the above conclusion.