甲型H1N1流感的死亡率高吗——Bayes计量分析框架下的建模与估算

Does Pandemic Influenza HlNl Has a High Mortality Rate—An Analysis of Modeling and Estimation in Bayesian Econometrics Framework

在全球甲型H1N1流感大流行背景下,本文在充分考虑各国甲流感死亡率可能存在个体混合效应、独立效应、相关效应及空间相关效应基础上,运用Bayes计量分析框架下的模型选择标准确定描述各国甲流感死亡率的最优模型,并基于该模型对不同国家甲流感死亡率进行估算。结果显示:个体独立、空间相关效应模型能很好拟合各国甲流感疫情统计数据,利用该模型估算的全球甲流感平均死亡率为0.577%。

In the context of the population of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in the world, we think of the possible mixed effects, independent effects, correlated effects and spatial correlated effects of the mortality rates of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in different countries. Using the model choice methods in Bayesian econometrics, we decide the most appropriate model to discribe the mortality rates of different countries. Base on the model, we estimate the mortality rates of different countris. The result reveals that： the individual independent and spatial correlated effects model can best fit the sample data, and the estimated average mortality rate of Pandemic Influenza H1N1 in the world is 0.577%.