20世纪气候学理论研究的十项成就

TEN ITEMS OF THE MOST IMPORTANT ACHIEVEMENTS IN THEORETICAL STUDIES OF CLIMATOLOGY DURING 20TH CENTURY

回顾了 2 0世纪气候学理论研究的主要成就 ,包括世界三大涛动、高低指数、月平均环流、瓦克环流、温室效应、月平均环流预测、ENSO预测、时滞振子理论、温盐环流及季平均环流预测。另外 ,对可能成为 2 1世纪初气候学理论研究的几个热点问题作了分析 ,即气候预测、东亚季风、ENSO、年代际气候变率以及温室效应的检测。

Theoretical studies of climatology during the 20th century was reviewed. Ten items of the most important achievements were outlined as following:①NAO,NPO and SO, ②circulation index, ③30 day mean circulation, ④ Walker circulation, ⑤greenhouse effect, ⑥prediction of monthly mean circulation, ⑦prediction of ENSO, ⑧delayed oscillator, ⑨thermohaline circulation, and 10prediction of seasonal mean circulation. Some problems which may become the hot topics in early 21st century, such as climatic prediction, East Asian monsoon, ENSO, interdecadal variability of climate, and detection of greenhouse effect,are discussed briefly.