沉没成本与中国加工环节国际转移的滞后性

Sunk Cost and the Lag of China's Processing Chain in International Transfer

跨国公司进入国际市场需要支付一定的进入成本,而这些成本往往是沉淀的。新古典经济学认为决策无需考虑沉没成本,但在现实经济条件下,沉没成本仍然显著影响着企业决策,特别是战略转移决策。近年来,随着中国劳动力成本、汇率的上升,中国加工环节的国际转移问题引起了国内外学者广泛的关注。本文在明确沉没成本概念的基础上,通过模型分析与实证分析证明沉没成本的存在使跨国公司的决策不会对外生波动做出及时反应,最终导致中国加工环节国际转移的滞后性,从新的角度解释了中国外贸加工业持续增长的原因。

Multinational corporations pay a certain cost of entry to enter the international market. These costs are often sunk. Neoclassical economics does not consider sunk cost in decision - making,but in the real economy, sunk cost continues to affect business decision significantly, especially strategic shift. In recent years, with the rise of China＇ s labor cost and exchange rate, the international transfer of China＇ s pro-cessing part has aroused widespread concern of scholars both at home and abroad. On the basis of the concept of sunk cost, this article uses modeling and empirical analysis to show that the existanee of sunk cost is the reason why the multinational corporations＇ decision does not make a timely response to exogenous volatility, and the sunk cost finally leads to the lag of China＇ s processing chain in international transfer. This artical also explains the reason why China＇ s trade processing continues to grow.